Day.Az: Signing of Turkey-Armenia protocols on establishment of diplomatic relations was one of the most significant events that have recently happened in our region. Attitude to them is ambiguous both within Turkey and Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Do you think the protocols will harm Azerbaijan or bring a benefit in terms of a further resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Heydar Jamal: The signing of the protocols violated the traditional balance of power around Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Traditionally there were two allies - Armenia-Iran and Azerbaijan-Turkey. Moscow was further strengthening the Iranian-Armenian bloc not spoiling relations with Baku and Ankara, but on the contrary, actively using its relationship with them for its pragmatic interests.
Now this well-established model is collapsing. Ankara's stance has become incoherent. On this backdrop, ambiguity of Moscow’s behavior is increasing. Azerbaijan now is in a new situation in which Armenia, Iran and Russia play against Azerbaijan with Turkey's eroded position and slippery selfish western approach to the solution of the Karabakh issue. Under these conditions, challenge for Azerbaijan’s national security increases dramatically.
Q: Many foreign experts have recently expressed confidence that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be resolved soon. Similar optimistic projections were made also over the past few years. Is there a feeling that it will be really solved this time?
A: It is well known what kind of "scenario" Armenia seeks to achieve. The “scenario” implies return of seven occupied regions to Azerbaijan including Karabakh and granting the widest possible autonomy to Karabakh under nominal sovereignty of Azerbaijan with a right to a free traffic of people and goods between Karabakh and Armenia. In other words, Azerbaijan would not be able to limit or even control mass entrance and exits of Armenians in Karabakh.
Since Karabakh will nominally be an administrative part of Azerbaijan, it would be equivalent to right of Armenians to unlimited and uncontrolled entry into Azerbaijan without a corresponding right of the Karabakh Azerbaijanis to travel to Armenia.
There is another aspect in addition to apparent provocation of such a "solution". Simply return of occupied territories without any conditions is unacceptable for Azerbaijan, because it does not compensate for the moral and geopolitical damage from the 20-year occupation and offers no guarantee for peace in the future.
Q: Prior to signing of the protocols President Serzh Sargsyan went on to Pan-Armenian tour to persuade the diaspora that his intentions are appropriate. Though the Diaspora strongly opposed the protocols, Sargsyan signed them. A few days later he went to Moscow to ask money from the Armenian Diaspora in Russia. As a person who lives in Moscow, can you say what was the reaction of Armenians and Azerbaijanis to the ongoing events? Could Sargsyan achieve his goal or friendship with the Diaspora was spoiled?
A: Armenian Diaspora not only in Russia but also in France and the U.S. were opposed to rapprochement with Turkey. In addition, there is a very powerful opposition to Sargsyan at home. All this together can lead to the fall Sargsyan’s regime under certain conditions.
It should be noted that development of Turkish-Armenian relations also contributes to Iran-Turkey rapproachement which is obviously contrary to the U.S.-Israeli interests in the region. So, today it is quite possible that Americans will begin to actively support anti-Sargsyan forces in Armenia.
Source:today.az
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